Yechezkel Gordon: PREVIEWING THE IOWA CAUCUSES- EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS AND PREDICTIONS

WHAT: The Iowa Caucuses

WHEN: January 3, 2012

ANALYSIS: After months of debating and campaigning, the first in the nation caucuses will officially usher in the 2012 election. The Republican field is narrowed down to seven candidates, and by the time the GOP convention is held in the summer, one of them will stand alone as the Republican candidate for president who will take on President Obama in the general election, for the honors of occupying the White House the next four years.

2008 RESULTS:
REPUBLICANS-
Mike Huckabee (34%), Mitt Romney (25%),
Fred Thompson (13%), John McCain (13%),
Ron Paul (10%),
Rudy Giuliani (4%), Duncan Hunter (1%)

DEMOCRATS-
Barack Obama (38%), John Edwards (30%), Hillary Clinton (29%),
Bill Richardson (2%),
Joe Biden (1%)

ANALYSIS: The importance of the first in the nation caucuses has been debated over the years. 2008 proved to be a mixed bag. Huckabee won on the Republican side and that was the last we heard of him until he got a job on Fox News. McCain finished in fourth place and went on to become the eventual nominee. On the Democrat side it was a whole different story. Obama's shocking first place finish, catapulted him to the front of the pack and he's never had to look back since. Previous years have proven more prophetic though. John Kerry won in 2004, Al Gore and George W. Bush won in 2000, and they all went on to become the nominee for their respected parties.

THE CANDIDATES: Here's a rundown of the Republican candidates that will be on the ballot for the Iowa caucuses, and what it will take for them to win.

Mitt Romney: The good news is, he was the front runner in the beginning of the race and he's still the front runner now. The bad news is, it's more a result of his competitors weaknesses then his strengths. He's proven to be a very good debater, and the weak economy plays to his strength as a former CEO and the executive who turned the Utah Olympics into a great economic success. New Hampshire has long been considered his home turf, and if he wins Iowa or comes in second to Paul, he's all but sure to win in NH, and cary that momentum into a South Carolina victory where he already has the endorsement of it's popular Governor. In short, his competitors have only one realistic shot of beating him, and that's in the socially conservative Iowa, if they fail to do that, the race is all but over.

Newt Gingrich: His poll numbers soared earlier this month following a string of strong debate performances and the collapse of Herman Cain's campaign. But the spotlight brings with it scrutiny, and for Gingrich that meant getting pounded for the past few weeks by everyone else on the campaign trail and with blunt TV ads painting him as a lifetime politician turned lobbyist, who will do and say anything to advance his career. He needs to do better then Romney to give himself a chance to win NH. If he doesn't finish in the top three, it will spell the end to his campaign.

Ron Paul: Throughout the campaign, Paul has maintained a strong showing in Iowa. He's known to have the most loyal supporters, and his anti- government stance has helped him expand his support from four years ago. He has the extensive groundwork and organization needed to win in Iowa, and the latest polls indicate that he has a very good chance of doing just that. Recently, his various controversial positions have come out, including racist and anti-Semitic statements in newsletters under his name that were published in the 1990's. He may win in Iowa, but if he does, it will be due to the support of Democrats and Independents, but very few Republicans.

Rick Santorum: As a social and economic conservative, Santorum decided to go all out in Iowa. While his competitors were crisscrossing the country campaigning and fundraising, he went house to house all across Iowa until he managed to visit all 99 counties. His strategy has shown signs of success recently when he received endorsements from two prominent evangelical leaders and from the Iowa Secretary of State. For Santorum, there's a lot at stake in this election. Unlike his conservative competitors Perry and Bachmann who have their current jobs as Governor and Congressman to fall back on should they loose, Santorum would be forced to find a private sector job to help pay off his debt from the campaign. Santorum has a consistent conservative track record throughout his political career in the House and Senate to help him appeal to the conservative Iowans. He'll either shock everyone with a surprising top three finish, or he'll be forced to drop out of the race with a poor showing. A big time endorsement from Iowa Congressman Steve King or another prominent Republican can make all the difference.

Michele Bachmann: A solid conservative that can boast about her victory in the Iowa Straw Poll this summer, but that's about all. Her numbers have tanked ever since Perry joined the race, and she'll need to do well in Iowa to stay in the race. She's fighting for the same conservative evangelicals as Perry and Santorum, and if the three of them split the evangelical vote it will give Romney a good chance of winning.

Rick Perry: His poor debate performances and frequent slip- ups have overshadowed his strong conservative record as Governor of Texas. Finishing below Santorum or Bachmann in the caucuses will put him on a one way ticket back to Texas.

Jon Huntsman: Early in the campaign, he said he would not compete in the more conservative Iowa, and instead would make his start in New Hampshire, which comes second on the nominating calendar. Thus, no matter how poorly he does he'll still be around for the NH primary.

PREDICTION: Unless Santorum pulls off an unbelievable come from behind victory, or Paul manages to convince enough Democrats and Independents to caucus for him, Romney will be the one delivering the victory speech in about a week from now.

Josephine Levin: BASHING- THE CRUSADE AGAINST THE ORTHODOX JEWS IN ISRAEL BY THE LIBERAL LEFT MEDIA AND POLITICIANS

Has anyone ever seen a headline like this? Secular Jew murders his wife or secular Jew robs bank or secular Jew abuses a child?

​However, these kinds of headlines we have all seen. Jewish settler murders wife in front of 6 children, suspected charedi pedophile arrested, Ethiopian oleh kills his wife, Russian immigrant suspected of murder, etc.

Some years ago it was rumored that the grandson of the head of a leftist political party murdered a man in cold blood. There was no mention in the press of a possible relationship between the young killer and the head of a leftist political party who had the same surname. Perhaps these rumors were unfounded but just imagine though if the son of a prominent settler leader or charedi rabbi murdered someone? Would the press also try to protect the parent's good reputation?

There is, in short, a double standard by the press in Israel when it comes to charedim, settlers, and new immigrants.

Sadly many of the National Religious are jumping on this same bashing bandwagon. The truth is that 99% of the charedi population are decent, law-abiding citizens who only want to live and let live.

Entire populations of decent law abiding citizens are smeared by this kind of bashing. Today a handful of hooligans called the Sicarii sicaristim are causing all kinds of problems against charedi, national relgious and secular Israelis, but the press labels them as charedi rather than sicarii and bashes all charedim.. The sicaristim in fact glued the Gerer rebbe's door so that the Gerrer rebbe was not able to leave his home to pray in the synagogue on Hoshana Raba. A sicarii leader was later beaten up and hospitalized probably in revenge.

Now here is something to consider. The head of the Kadima party,Tsipi Livini made it clear after the last elections that she would never join a government that contained members of the Shas religious party. Shas, by the way, is the main reason this government cannot consider dividing Jerusalem or returning Israel's holy places to the Palestinians or handing them over to some kind of international rule by the Vatican and the UN.

So is it coincidental that now when rumors of early elections are circulating, that leftists are purposely provoking the charedim by boarding busses usually with a photographer and journalist not far behind to deliberately cause a public outcry against them? One of them in fact joined Tsippi Livni in a a march for women's rights to sit in front on busses, etc. The charedi rabbis say the reason men should sit in front is not because men are superior to woman - just the opposite. They feel that they, as men, are in fact inferior when it comes to temptations. So women can see the men but the men cannot see the women.
This is not discrimination - this is purely for reasons of modesty.

Most charedi busses take much longer to reach a destination than the regular busses because they wind around all the charedi neighborhoods. It takes 20 minutes longer just to leave or enter Ashdod if one boards a charedi bus instead of a regular bus. There is no advantage to riding one, especially if one is in a hurry to get to work, back to an army base or to just get home.

By the way married couples often sit together on the Ashdod haredi busses - they sit in the middle! It is apparent that many of the bashers have never ridden on a charedi bus.

The National Religious people should wake up. The only way we can have another major disengagement is if Shas and Israel Beitenu will be removed or leave this present government. So stop your bashing. Everyone is repulsed by men who spit, throw excrement and call little Jewish girls shiksas, but why brand and bash an entire population because of a few hooligans? The mother of the daughter spat upon by hooligans in Bet Shemesh refuses to meet with the Shas mayor Moshe Abutbul of Bet Shemesh (reported in the press). Why? He has invited her to meet with him and she refuses his offer.

Frankly, the major rabbis should get together and excommunicate the Neturei Karta and the Sicaristim or somehow do more to disassociate themselves from them.

If Kadima replaces Shas and Yisrael Beitenu we will have another hitnatkut although on a much bigger scale than the disengagement from Gush Katif. A house divided cannot stand. We could not stand up against the Romans when we were divided by all kinds of in-fighting and causeless hatred between Jews over 2000 years ago when we lost the Temple and went into exile. The kind of bashing today and hatred between us will cause us to lose the Temple Mount again, so wake up. Unite. Reach out to each other and of course separate yourselves from the minority extremists who spit on children and who attack army bases. We do not want to lose the Temple Mount again.