Yechezkel Gordon: PREVIEWING THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY- EXCLUSIVEANALYSIS AND PREDICTIONS

WHAT: The New Hampshire primary

WHEN: January 10, 2012

ANALYSIS: The Iowa caucuses turned out to have quite a dramatic finish, with a mere eight votes separating the first place Mitt Romney and second place Rick Santorum. Ron Paul finished a disappointed third, followed by Gingrich, Perry, and Bachmann. Following her last place finish, Michele Bachmann dropped out of the race, leaving only six GOP candidates left to compete in New Hampshire.

2008 RESULTS:
REPUBLICANS:
John McCain- 37%
Mitt Romney- 31%
Mike Huckabee- 11%
Rudy Giuliani- 9%
Ron Paul- 8%

DEMOCRATS:
Hillary Clinton- 39%
Barack Obama- 36%
John Edwards- 17%
Bill Richardson- 5%

THE CANDIDATES: Here's a rundown of the Republican candidates that will be on the ballot for the New Hampshire primary, and what it will take for them to win.

Mitt Romney: The former Governor of neighboring Massachusetts, has had his sights set on the New Hampshire primary for quite some time. He's consistently polled in the high thirties to low forties in a state that favors more moderate Republican candidates, with an open primary system that allows Independents to vote as well. His eight vote victory over Santorum in Iowa can only help him in New Hampshire, but the real question is wether or not he'll be able to win the South Carolina primary, a state that favors more conservative candidates, and has a solid track-record of picking the eventual GOP nominee. Elections are all about momentum, which means the bigger his margin of victory is Tuesday night, the better his chances are of winning the first-in-the-nation southern primary at the end of the month.

Rick Santorum: After his shocking virtual first place finish in the Iowa caucuses (where he lost to Romney by only 8 votes), Santorum has effectively overtaken Newt Gingrich as the conservative alternative to Romney. His campaign received quite a boost from his Iowa shocker in both fundraising and media exposure, and has also landed him a much more prominent role in the debates. New Hampshire's moderate electorate doesn't exactly suit Santorum's strong conservative social record, which means he was never really expected to win New Hampshire, so as long as he does well in the primary and finishes ahead of Gingrich, he'll be able to take much of his Iowa momentum into South Carolina where he'll have a chance to become the new national conservative leader.

Ron Paul: Iowa was his best shot at winning, and he failed to do so. He has the money and support to stick around for a while, so don't expect him to drop out anytime soon. His libertarian domestic policies and isolationist foreign policies have attracted a loyal young following that will give him a good shot at second or third place. He has absolutely zero chance of winning the Republican nomination, and the only real question with him is wether or not he'll make a third party run in the November election.

Newt Gingrich: Regardless of how his Presidential campaign ends up, he has successfully revived his seemingly dead political career, and turned himself into a powerful political force that has to be reckoned with. He has consistently stood out at the debates as a highly intellectual individual with original ideas who won't put up with the mainstream media's partisan nonsense. He has enough money and support to stay in the race through the Florida primary at the end of the month, but he faces the difficult task of competing with the surging Santorum for the conservative voters in New Hampshire and more importantly South Carolina. If he finishes ahead of Santorum in New Hampshire, it will give him some much needed momentum going into South Carolina, but if ends up in last place (not including Perry) in NH, it will cement the notion in many people's minds, that the only reason he stayed in the race after his fourth place Iowa finish, was to maintain a platform with which he can get even with Romney for all the negative ads he ran against him.

Jon Huntsman: Of all the candidates, he has the most at-stake in this primary. After skipping the Iowa caucuses to focus completely on campaigning in New Hampshire, Huntsman has to hope that there's a big turnout of Independents and Democrats to give his campaign a much needed boost. His poll numbers have started to rise in the latest polls conducted in the last few days, but it's highly unlikely that he'll be able to pull off a near-tie for first place with Romney like Santorum did in Iowa. The best he could hope for at this point in time, is a top three finish, wether or not that will be enough for him to stay in the race is yet to be seen. In the end of the day, his biggest liability with Republican voters is that he worked for President Obama the past few years as the Ambassador to China, not exactly the pedigree GOP voters are looking for in a candidate to take on Obama this November.

Rick Perry: He shocked the political world (and perhaps himself) by staying in the race after his second to last finish in Iowa. Apparently, he decided to give his once-thriving but now-dormant campaign one last chance for revival in South Carolina's first in the south primary. He has officially decided to skip the New Hampshire primary and instead focus completely on the South Carolina primary at the end of the month.

PREDICTION: There's no need to worry about another suspense filled eight vote victory, since Romney will easily win this primary by at least 10%. The only other sure thing is a last place finish by Perry who isn't officially competing in this primary. That leaves it to Paul, Santorum, Huntsman, and Gingrich to fight over the 2-5 slots.

Aron Adler: A LETTER FROM AN ISRAELI RESERVE SOLDIER

My name is Aron Adler.
I am 25 years old, was born in Brooklyn NY, and raised in Efrat Israel. Though very busy, I don’t view my life as unusual. Most of the time, I am just another Israeli citizen. During the day I work as a paramedic in Magen David Adom, Israel’s national EMS service. At night, I’m in my first year of law school. I got married this October and am starting a new chapter of life together with my wonderful wife Shulamit.

15-20 days out of every year, I'm called up to the Israeli army to do my reserve duty. I serve as a paramedic in an IDF paratrooper unit. My squad is made up of others like me; people living normal lives who step up to serve whenever responsibility calls. The oldest in my squad is 58, a father of four girls and grandfather of two; there are two bankers, one engineer, a holistic healer, and my 24 year old commander who is still trying to figure out what to do with his life. Most of the year we are just normal people living our lives, but for 15-20 days each year we are soldiers on the front lines preparing for a war that we hope we never have to fight.

This year, our reserve unit was stationed on the border between Israel, Egypt and the Gaza Strip in an area called “Kerem Shalom.” Above and beyond the “typical” things for which we train – war, terrorism, border infiltration, etc., - this year we were confronted by a new challenge. Several years ago, a trend started of African refugees crossing the Egyptian border from Sinai into Israel to seek asylum from the atrocities in Darfur.

What started out as a small number of men, women and children fleeing from the machetes of the Janjaweed and violent fundamentalists to seek a better life elsewhere, turned into an organized industry of human trafficking. In return for huge sums of money, sometimes entire life savings paid to Bedouin “guides,” these refugees are promised to be transported from Sudan, Eritrea, and other African countries through Egypt and the Sinai desert, into the safe haven of Israel.

We increasingly hear horror stories of the atrocities these refugees suffer on their way to freedom. They are subject to, and victims of extortion, rape, murder, and even organ theft, their bodies left to rot in the desert. Then, if lucky, after surviving this gruesome experience whose prize is freedom, when only a barbed wire fence separates them from Israel and their goal, they must go through the final death run and try to evade the bullets of the Egyptian soldiers stationed along the border. Egypt’s soldiers are ordered to shoot to kill anyone trying to cross the border OUT of Egypt and into Israel. It’s an almost nightly event.

For those who finally get across the border, the first people they encounter are Israeli soldiers, people like me and those in my unit, who are tasked with a primary mission of defending the lives of the Israeli people. On one side of the border soldiers shoot to kill. On the other side, they know they will be treated with more respect than in any of the countries they crossed to get to this point.

The region where it all happens is highly sensitive and risky from a security point of view, an area stricken with terror at every turn. It’s just a few miles south of the place where Gilad Shalit was kidnapped. And yet the Israeli soldiers who are confronted with these refugees do it not with rifles aimed at them, but with a helping hand and an open heart. The refugees are taken to a nearby IDF base, given clean clothes, a hot drink, food and medical attention. They are finally safe.

Even though I live in Israel and am aware through media reports of the events that take place on the Egyptian border, I never understood the intensity and complexity of the scenario until I experienced it myself.

In the course of the past few nights, I have witnessed much. At 9:00 PM last night, the first reports came in of gunfire heard from the Egyptian border. Minutes later, IDF scouts spotted small groups of people trying to get across the fence. In the period of about one hour, we picked up 13 men - cold, barefoot, dehydrated - some wearing nothing except underpants. Their bodies were covered with lacerations and other wounds. We gathered them in a room, gave them blankets, tea and treated their wounds. I don’t speak a word of their language, but the look on their faces said it all and reminded me once again why I am so proud to be a Jew and an Israeli. Sadly, it was later determined that the gunshots we heard were deadly, killing three others fleeing for their lives.

During the 350 days a year when I am not on active duty, when I am just another man trying to get by, the people tasked with doing this amazing job, this amazing deed, the people witnessing these events, are mostly young Israeli soldiers just out of high school, serving their compulsory time in the IDF, some only 18 years old.

The refugees flooding into Israel are a heavy burden on our small country. More than 100,000 refugees have fled this way, and hundreds more cross the border every month. The social, economic, and humanitarian issues created by this influx of refugees are immense. There are serious security consequences for Israel as well. This influx of African refugees poses a crisis for Israel. Israel has yet to come up with the solutions required to deal with this crisis effectively, balancing its’ sensitive social, economic, and security issues, at the same time striving to care for the refugees.

I don’t have the answers to these complex problems which desperately need to be resolved. I’m not writing these words with the intention of taking a political position or a tactical stand on the issue.

I am writing to tell you and the entire world what’s really happening down here on the Egyptian/Israeli border. And to tell you that despite all the serious problems created by this national crisis, these refugees have no reason to fear us. Because they know, as the entire world needs to know, that Israel has not shut its eyes to their suffering and pain. Israel has not looked the other way. The State of Israel has put politics aside to take the ethical and humane path as it has so often done before, in every instance of human suffering and natural disasters around the globe. We Jews know only too well about suffering and pain. The Jewish people have been there. We have been the refugees and the persecuted so many times, over thousands of years, all over the world.

Today, when African refugees flood our borders in search of freedom and better lives, and some for fear of their lives, it is particularly noteworthy how Israel deals with them, despite the enormous strain it puts on our country on so many levels. Our young and thriving Jewish people and country, built from the ashes of the Holocaust, do not turn their backs on humanity. Though I already knew that, this week I once again experienced it firsthand. I am overwhelmed with emotion and immensely proud to be a member of this nation.

With love of Israel,

Aron Adler writing from the Israel/Gaza/Egyptian border.

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NOTE FROM THE EDITOR: This letter was written back in November 2011 and published then by various publications. I just recently came across it and decided to post it now for the benefit of the readers of The Frum Thinker.

Here are some pictures you probably won't see anytime soon in your local liberal media:

Rena Baldinger: CALM BEFORE THE CROWDS- EXPERIENCING BEN YEHUDA AND GEULA PEACEFULLY

There are times and circumstances where you find yourself in a familiar place, yet the location has a surprisingly different feel than usual. As I made my way to the Misrad Hapnim (Ministry of Interior) for my early morning appointment, I wasn’t exactly jumping for joy at my chance to be inside the infamous building. The Ministry is known for its long lines, rude customer service, and strict rules (who ever heard of rules being listened to in this country? Bent, maybe, but not listened to). By the time I got out of there, I was ready for some major winding down. So I headed where most teenagers head on a typical night to just chill; Ben Yehuda. However, this was not the same Ben Yehuda that you and I got to know as students; nope, it was a place bustling while stores didn’t even open yet. It was a wide street with pretty squares that hosted beautiful greenery. It was a street that trucks were actually driving down…who knew cars, let alone trucks, were even allowed down that road? It was a place that housed an idle truck with a cheery Israeli heaving out huge bunches of fresh flowers for the local shop. It was a place where I was able to enjoy a quiet, peaceful breakfast without the constant boisterousness.

Moving on towards Geula, which I have never seen empty or quiet, I was even further surprised. I didn’t see familiar faces on street corners with cups in their hand, banging a rhythm with the jingling coins. I didn’t see bus stops filled to capacity, so much so that passersby are forced into the streets along with the very close-to-the-edge buses. I didn’t even see popcorn popping in their machines every other store. It was a whole new world, and I truly began appreciating the serenity and the quaintness that comes along with the street if you just get there at the right time (no, that time is not Friday afternoon). I realized that it doesn’t have to be a one-time opportunity either. Try it out; get moving in the Old City in the hours where you’ll actually have a chance to admire the slippery stones and the paths that lead dozens of different ways.

One thing that is important to realize in planning your trip of discovery: don’t explore places that are usually quiet. The way to go is to be in those areas that normally exceed the decibel level of a boom box. Bring yourself to the liveliest of places at the right time, and you will be able to experience the ultimate tranquility.