Alan Edelstein: EGYPTIAN DEMOCRACY STARTING TO LOOK MORE LIKE AN ISLAMIST ASCENDANCY

Only 20 days to the one-year anniversary of the day I started my countdown to Egyptian democracy. With all the euphoria about the "Arab Spring" and the many predictions of the imminent creation of democracy in Egypt and other Arab countries, I somewhat cynically initiated my countdown, giving the Egyptians one year to establish their democracy.

How is it going? Well, the run-up to the elections, during which the Egyptian army has ruled, did not inspire confidence. With the continuing violence, repression, arrests, attacks on Christians, and invasions of the offices of pro-democracy non-profits, Egypt did not look like it was on the verge of democracy.

However, the elections were held and it appeared that the atmosphere was generally free and non-violent. The result, on the other hand, leaves many questions. With the Muslim Brotherhood at almost half of the seats and the even more radical Salafists at nearly a quarter, the Islamists now have over two-thirds of the seats in the Parliament.

Elections alone do not make for a democracy. A free society before and after does. Dictatorships are often elected democratically. The question is whether that will be the last democratic election.

Despite the declarations by some in the Brotherhood that they intend to respect individual rights and pluralism, there is little in the Brotherhood's ideology and history that gives a ring of truth to those statements. Moreover, their brothers in the Salafist movement do not even pretend to have an intent to live by pluralistic, democratic principles.

The Obama Administration, along with many others, was apparently surprised by the ascendancy of Islamist parties in Egypt and elsewhere in the wake of the "Arab Spring." So it appears the Administration is now adopting the posture that the Brotherhood is not so immoderate after all.

The Administration appears to be betting on the hope that the Brotherhood is true to its word when it says it will be tolerant of diverse views and a democratic environment. There is no evidence to support any such moderation by the Brotherhood, but there is apparently an inexhaustive supply of Western hope and naivety.

Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood's progeny and the reigning power in the Gaza Strip, took partial control in democratic elections. They subsequently wrested complete control from their rival Fatah by extremely violent means, throwing Fatah members out of windows and shooting them in the legs. Torture and repression are now commonplace in Gaza.

Here is a January 20th report by Hugh Naylor, foreign correspondent for Abu Dhabi's National newspaper, illustrating the current state of democracy as practiced by Hamas:

'Hamas security forces - up to 100 policemen and masked men in civilian clothes - stormed an apartment building in Beit Lahiya in Gaza on Saturday where Shiite Muslims were gathered to commemorate the death of Imam Hussein, the Prophet Mohammed's grandson. They dragging (sic) out 15 men, whom they then beat with truncheons and denounced as infidels. "The police showed everyone black Shiite headbands and were yelling to the crowds, 'Look at these kafirs [unbelievers]!'," said Yasser Ziada, 23. "It was like they were putting on a show for us, beating them in front of everyone."

'The main allies of Hamas - Iran and Hizbullah - are predominantly Shiite, or in the case of Syria's Alawites, an offshoot of Shiism. Saturday's crackdown on Shiites - occurring as Hamas dismantles its headquarters in Damascus - may be an indication that the tectonic political shifts underway since the Arab Spring may be affecting Gaza. Hamas is seen to be gravitating towards newly empowered Sunni Islamist groups in the Arab Spring countries of Egypt and Tunisia, opening opportunities for hard-line Hamas members to settle sectarian scores, said Hani Habib, a political analyst in Gaza.

In a statement released after the assault, the Interior Ministry in Gaza admitted carrying out the operation. "Gaza and Palestine in general is a society that believes in Sunni Islam," adding that there were "no Shiites in Palestine." Mustafa Sawaf, an official at the Culture Ministry, noted, "We are a Sunni society, so Hamas felt like it had to take action against them." He added that Saturday's attack was "dramatized [by Hamas] to show people in Gaza that it does not tolerate Shiites."

This from the Son of the Muslim Brotherhood. Inspiring. Hamas "had to take action" to show it is Sunni. So the appropriate action, according to the Ministry of Culture, is to beat the living daylights out of people with different beliefs. Very democratic. Is this an illustration of the "moderation" some see in the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas?

I don't think I will be booking my trip to democratic Egypt quite yet. I'd rather take my chances on a cruise.

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Alan Edelstein, a new Oleh to Israel, is a 30 year veteran of California government and politics and a founder and former senior partner of a highly successful lobbying firm. He lives in Jerusalem and is President of Edelstein Strategies, a communications, strategy development, and governmental affairs consulting firm. He blogs at www.edelsteinrandomthoughts.com.

Yechezkel Gordon: PREVIEWING THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY- EXCLUSIVEANALYSIS AND PREDICTIONS

WHAT: The New Hampshire primary

WHEN: January 10, 2012

ANALYSIS: The Iowa caucuses turned out to have quite a dramatic finish, with a mere eight votes separating the first place Mitt Romney and second place Rick Santorum. Ron Paul finished a disappointed third, followed by Gingrich, Perry, and Bachmann. Following her last place finish, Michele Bachmann dropped out of the race, leaving only six GOP candidates left to compete in New Hampshire.

2008 RESULTS:
REPUBLICANS:
John McCain- 37%
Mitt Romney- 31%
Mike Huckabee- 11%
Rudy Giuliani- 9%
Ron Paul- 8%

DEMOCRATS:
Hillary Clinton- 39%
Barack Obama- 36%
John Edwards- 17%
Bill Richardson- 5%

THE CANDIDATES: Here's a rundown of the Republican candidates that will be on the ballot for the New Hampshire primary, and what it will take for them to win.

Mitt Romney: The former Governor of neighboring Massachusetts, has had his sights set on the New Hampshire primary for quite some time. He's consistently polled in the high thirties to low forties in a state that favors more moderate Republican candidates, with an open primary system that allows Independents to vote as well. His eight vote victory over Santorum in Iowa can only help him in New Hampshire, but the real question is wether or not he'll be able to win the South Carolina primary, a state that favors more conservative candidates, and has a solid track-record of picking the eventual GOP nominee. Elections are all about momentum, which means the bigger his margin of victory is Tuesday night, the better his chances are of winning the first-in-the-nation southern primary at the end of the month.

Rick Santorum: After his shocking virtual first place finish in the Iowa caucuses (where he lost to Romney by only 8 votes), Santorum has effectively overtaken Newt Gingrich as the conservative alternative to Romney. His campaign received quite a boost from his Iowa shocker in both fundraising and media exposure, and has also landed him a much more prominent role in the debates. New Hampshire's moderate electorate doesn't exactly suit Santorum's strong conservative social record, which means he was never really expected to win New Hampshire, so as long as he does well in the primary and finishes ahead of Gingrich, he'll be able to take much of his Iowa momentum into South Carolina where he'll have a chance to become the new national conservative leader.

Ron Paul: Iowa was his best shot at winning, and he failed to do so. He has the money and support to stick around for a while, so don't expect him to drop out anytime soon. His libertarian domestic policies and isolationist foreign policies have attracted a loyal young following that will give him a good shot at second or third place. He has absolutely zero chance of winning the Republican nomination, and the only real question with him is wether or not he'll make a third party run in the November election.

Newt Gingrich: Regardless of how his Presidential campaign ends up, he has successfully revived his seemingly dead political career, and turned himself into a powerful political force that has to be reckoned with. He has consistently stood out at the debates as a highly intellectual individual with original ideas who won't put up with the mainstream media's partisan nonsense. He has enough money and support to stay in the race through the Florida primary at the end of the month, but he faces the difficult task of competing with the surging Santorum for the conservative voters in New Hampshire and more importantly South Carolina. If he finishes ahead of Santorum in New Hampshire, it will give him some much needed momentum going into South Carolina, but if ends up in last place (not including Perry) in NH, it will cement the notion in many people's minds, that the only reason he stayed in the race after his fourth place Iowa finish, was to maintain a platform with which he can get even with Romney for all the negative ads he ran against him.

Jon Huntsman: Of all the candidates, he has the most at-stake in this primary. After skipping the Iowa caucuses to focus completely on campaigning in New Hampshire, Huntsman has to hope that there's a big turnout of Independents and Democrats to give his campaign a much needed boost. His poll numbers have started to rise in the latest polls conducted in the last few days, but it's highly unlikely that he'll be able to pull off a near-tie for first place with Romney like Santorum did in Iowa. The best he could hope for at this point in time, is a top three finish, wether or not that will be enough for him to stay in the race is yet to be seen. In the end of the day, his biggest liability with Republican voters is that he worked for President Obama the past few years as the Ambassador to China, not exactly the pedigree GOP voters are looking for in a candidate to take on Obama this November.

Rick Perry: He shocked the political world (and perhaps himself) by staying in the race after his second to last finish in Iowa. Apparently, he decided to give his once-thriving but now-dormant campaign one last chance for revival in South Carolina's first in the south primary. He has officially decided to skip the New Hampshire primary and instead focus completely on the South Carolina primary at the end of the month.

PREDICTION: There's no need to worry about another suspense filled eight vote victory, since Romney will easily win this primary by at least 10%. The only other sure thing is a last place finish by Perry who isn't officially competing in this primary. That leaves it to Paul, Santorum, Huntsman, and Gingrich to fight over the 2-5 slots.

Aron Adler: A LETTER FROM AN ISRAELI RESERVE SOLDIER

My name is Aron Adler.
I am 25 years old, was born in Brooklyn NY, and raised in Efrat Israel. Though very busy, I don’t view my life as unusual. Most of the time, I am just another Israeli citizen. During the day I work as a paramedic in Magen David Adom, Israel’s national EMS service. At night, I’m in my first year of law school. I got married this October and am starting a new chapter of life together with my wonderful wife Shulamit.

15-20 days out of every year, I'm called up to the Israeli army to do my reserve duty. I serve as a paramedic in an IDF paratrooper unit. My squad is made up of others like me; people living normal lives who step up to serve whenever responsibility calls. The oldest in my squad is 58, a father of four girls and grandfather of two; there are two bankers, one engineer, a holistic healer, and my 24 year old commander who is still trying to figure out what to do with his life. Most of the year we are just normal people living our lives, but for 15-20 days each year we are soldiers on the front lines preparing for a war that we hope we never have to fight.

This year, our reserve unit was stationed on the border between Israel, Egypt and the Gaza Strip in an area called “Kerem Shalom.” Above and beyond the “typical” things for which we train – war, terrorism, border infiltration, etc., - this year we were confronted by a new challenge. Several years ago, a trend started of African refugees crossing the Egyptian border from Sinai into Israel to seek asylum from the atrocities in Darfur.

What started out as a small number of men, women and children fleeing from the machetes of the Janjaweed and violent fundamentalists to seek a better life elsewhere, turned into an organized industry of human trafficking. In return for huge sums of money, sometimes entire life savings paid to Bedouin “guides,” these refugees are promised to be transported from Sudan, Eritrea, and other African countries through Egypt and the Sinai desert, into the safe haven of Israel.

We increasingly hear horror stories of the atrocities these refugees suffer on their way to freedom. They are subject to, and victims of extortion, rape, murder, and even organ theft, their bodies left to rot in the desert. Then, if lucky, after surviving this gruesome experience whose prize is freedom, when only a barbed wire fence separates them from Israel and their goal, they must go through the final death run and try to evade the bullets of the Egyptian soldiers stationed along the border. Egypt’s soldiers are ordered to shoot to kill anyone trying to cross the border OUT of Egypt and into Israel. It’s an almost nightly event.

For those who finally get across the border, the first people they encounter are Israeli soldiers, people like me and those in my unit, who are tasked with a primary mission of defending the lives of the Israeli people. On one side of the border soldiers shoot to kill. On the other side, they know they will be treated with more respect than in any of the countries they crossed to get to this point.

The region where it all happens is highly sensitive and risky from a security point of view, an area stricken with terror at every turn. It’s just a few miles south of the place where Gilad Shalit was kidnapped. And yet the Israeli soldiers who are confronted with these refugees do it not with rifles aimed at them, but with a helping hand and an open heart. The refugees are taken to a nearby IDF base, given clean clothes, a hot drink, food and medical attention. They are finally safe.

Even though I live in Israel and am aware through media reports of the events that take place on the Egyptian border, I never understood the intensity and complexity of the scenario until I experienced it myself.

In the course of the past few nights, I have witnessed much. At 9:00 PM last night, the first reports came in of gunfire heard from the Egyptian border. Minutes later, IDF scouts spotted small groups of people trying to get across the fence. In the period of about one hour, we picked up 13 men - cold, barefoot, dehydrated - some wearing nothing except underpants. Their bodies were covered with lacerations and other wounds. We gathered them in a room, gave them blankets, tea and treated their wounds. I don’t speak a word of their language, but the look on their faces said it all and reminded me once again why I am so proud to be a Jew and an Israeli. Sadly, it was later determined that the gunshots we heard were deadly, killing three others fleeing for their lives.

During the 350 days a year when I am not on active duty, when I am just another man trying to get by, the people tasked with doing this amazing job, this amazing deed, the people witnessing these events, are mostly young Israeli soldiers just out of high school, serving their compulsory time in the IDF, some only 18 years old.

The refugees flooding into Israel are a heavy burden on our small country. More than 100,000 refugees have fled this way, and hundreds more cross the border every month. The social, economic, and humanitarian issues created by this influx of refugees are immense. There are serious security consequences for Israel as well. This influx of African refugees poses a crisis for Israel. Israel has yet to come up with the solutions required to deal with this crisis effectively, balancing its’ sensitive social, economic, and security issues, at the same time striving to care for the refugees.

I don’t have the answers to these complex problems which desperately need to be resolved. I’m not writing these words with the intention of taking a political position or a tactical stand on the issue.

I am writing to tell you and the entire world what’s really happening down here on the Egyptian/Israeli border. And to tell you that despite all the serious problems created by this national crisis, these refugees have no reason to fear us. Because they know, as the entire world needs to know, that Israel has not shut its eyes to their suffering and pain. Israel has not looked the other way. The State of Israel has put politics aside to take the ethical and humane path as it has so often done before, in every instance of human suffering and natural disasters around the globe. We Jews know only too well about suffering and pain. The Jewish people have been there. We have been the refugees and the persecuted so many times, over thousands of years, all over the world.

Today, when African refugees flood our borders in search of freedom and better lives, and some for fear of their lives, it is particularly noteworthy how Israel deals with them, despite the enormous strain it puts on our country on so many levels. Our young and thriving Jewish people and country, built from the ashes of the Holocaust, do not turn their backs on humanity. Though I already knew that, this week I once again experienced it firsthand. I am overwhelmed with emotion and immensely proud to be a member of this nation.

With love of Israel,

Aron Adler writing from the Israel/Gaza/Egyptian border.

•••••••••••••••••
NOTE FROM THE EDITOR: This letter was written back in November 2011 and published then by various publications. I just recently came across it and decided to post it now for the benefit of the readers of The Frum Thinker.

Here are some pictures you probably won't see anytime soon in your local liberal media:

Rena Baldinger: CALM BEFORE THE CROWDS- EXPERIENCING BEN YEHUDA AND GEULA PEACEFULLY

There are times and circumstances where you find yourself in a familiar place, yet the location has a surprisingly different feel than usual. As I made my way to the Misrad Hapnim (Ministry of Interior) for my early morning appointment, I wasn’t exactly jumping for joy at my chance to be inside the infamous building. The Ministry is known for its long lines, rude customer service, and strict rules (who ever heard of rules being listened to in this country? Bent, maybe, but not listened to). By the time I got out of there, I was ready for some major winding down. So I headed where most teenagers head on a typical night to just chill; Ben Yehuda. However, this was not the same Ben Yehuda that you and I got to know as students; nope, it was a place bustling while stores didn’t even open yet. It was a wide street with pretty squares that hosted beautiful greenery. It was a street that trucks were actually driving down…who knew cars, let alone trucks, were even allowed down that road? It was a place that housed an idle truck with a cheery Israeli heaving out huge bunches of fresh flowers for the local shop. It was a place where I was able to enjoy a quiet, peaceful breakfast without the constant boisterousness.

Moving on towards Geula, which I have never seen empty or quiet, I was even further surprised. I didn’t see familiar faces on street corners with cups in their hand, banging a rhythm with the jingling coins. I didn’t see bus stops filled to capacity, so much so that passersby are forced into the streets along with the very close-to-the-edge buses. I didn’t even see popcorn popping in their machines every other store. It was a whole new world, and I truly began appreciating the serenity and the quaintness that comes along with the street if you just get there at the right time (no, that time is not Friday afternoon). I realized that it doesn’t have to be a one-time opportunity either. Try it out; get moving in the Old City in the hours where you’ll actually have a chance to admire the slippery stones and the paths that lead dozens of different ways.

One thing that is important to realize in planning your trip of discovery: don’t explore places that are usually quiet. The way to go is to be in those areas that normally exceed the decibel level of a boom box. Bring yourself to the liveliest of places at the right time, and you will be able to experience the ultimate tranquility.

Yonatan Sredni: THE TENTH OF TEVET- SIEGE THE DAY!

On Tuesday evening I waited for the bus from Bnei Barak to Jerusalem, but made a conscious effort to let the ‘regular’ bus # 400 go buy and boarded the ‘mehadrin’ bus #402. I chose the 402 because it gets to the capital quicker, not because I was making any kind of ‘statement’. When the 402 arrived I boarded and sat in aisle seat next to a Haredi gentleman near the front of the bus, but felt quite uncomfortable. I turned my head towards the back of the bus, looked past the rows of men, and saw a few women in the rows behind the back door, but the very last rows were empty. One male soldier, who had boarded with me, had taken a seat in the empty second to last row, so I, feeling quite bold, got up and headed to the last row of elevated seats which I had to myself. As I observed the bus from the back row, men in the front, a few women in the back and me in the rear, I realized something - nobody cared!

Granted, if I were a woman and had insisted on sitting in the front of the bus, a heated ‘discussion’ might have erupted. But a man sitting in the back of the bus was of no consequence to the passengers in front of me. It reminded me of a scene from a silly movie about a car race where one of the drivers rips off his rear-view mirror and proudly declares, “Whatever is behind me is not important!”

Today is Asarah B’Tevet (Tenth of Tevet), a ‘minor’ public fast day on the Jewish calendar, which commemorates the siege of Jerusalem by Nebuchadnezzar of Babylonia - an event that began on that date and ultimately culminated in the destruction of the First Temple (on Tisha B’Av). The 10th of Tevet seems to get very little public attention. Perhaps it is because it has always been a ‘minor’ fast day, not in the ‘big leagues’ of major fasts like Tisha B’Av. Also, as a ‘dawn to nightfall’ fast which falls in the winter time, it barely lasts twelve hours, and therefore comes and goes virtually unnoticed.

According to Kings II, on the 10th day of the 10th month (Tevet), in the ninth year of Zedekiah's reign (425 BCE), the Babylonian king, Nebuchadnezzar, began the siege of Jerusalem. A year and a half later, on the 17th of Tammuz in the eleventh year of Zedekiah's reign (427 BCE), he broke through the city walls. The siege ended with the destruction of the Temple three weeks later, on the 9th of Av, the end of the first Kingdoms and the exile of the Jewish people to Babylon. The Tenth of Tevet is thus considered part of the cycle of fasts connected with these events, which includes: Shivah Asar B’Tammuz (17th of Tammuz) and Tisha B’Av (9th of Av).

In reality, the events of the Tenth of Tevet were only the beginning. The really ‘important’ or major events didn’t begin till the events of the 17th of Tammuz, which culminated with the destruction of the Temple on Tisha B’Av. So, I can ‘almost’ understand those who have a ‘rear-view mirror’ response to the Tenth of Tevet.

But recent events in Israel have changed my opinion about the Tenth of Tevet. A different kind of ‘siege’ is taking place. It may have started out as a curiosity, a few signs in Haredi neighborhoods demanding that women walk on the other side of the street, but it has evolved into something much bigger. An eight year old girl in Beit Shemesh was accosted on her way to school for not being dressed ‘modestly enough’. A female soldier was verbally harassed for refusing to go to the rear of a public bus. But perhaps the biggest shock of all was the use of young Haredi children dressed in striped concentration camp uniforms and yellow stars in last Saturday night’s counter-protest. By evoking the Holocaust, a taboo has been broken and a thick red line has now definitely been crossed.

After the establishment of the state of Israel, The Chief Rabbinate of Israel chose to observe the Tenth of Tevet as a "general kaddish day" for the victims of the Holocaust, many of whom lack identifiable yahrtzeits (anniversaries of their deaths). The somber fast day of the Tenth of Tevet is the proper time and place to invoke the memory of those who died in the Holocaust, and not at a sectoral public protest like last Saturday night.

But fast days are not just about fasting. In fact, we are taught that if one fasts and prays, but does not do ‘chesbon nefesh’ (soul searching) and engage in T’shuva (repentance), the fasting is meaningless. Jewish public fast days were established as a time for introspection and reconciliation. It is a time for examining ourselves and our society. It is a time for looking back in our rear-view mirror and looking forward towards where we are headed. If the Tenth of Tevet teaches us anything, it is that the first signs of trouble matter. The siege of Jerusalem began on Tenth of Tevet, but it lasted over a year. During the time of the siege I’d be willing to bet that many thought it would pass with time and nothing would come of it. The Hebrew expression, still used today for many troubling current situations, ‘Na’avor gam et ze’ (‘This too shall pass’) comes to mind. But the Tenth of Tevet, although it may be a ‘minor’ fast day, is anything but minor. We need to see the signs when the ‘siege’ begins; we need to recognize where things are headed and set things right before it’s too late. We can’t just wait and hope for it to pass. We cannot refuse to look backwards and simply disregard what is behind us in our past. Pardon the pun, but we need to ‘siege the day’!

•••••••••••••••
Yonatan Sredni was born and raised in northern California (Palo Alto), but has lived in Israel since 1994. He has a BA in English from San Diego State University and an MA in Creative Writing from Bar- Ilan University. His short stories, most of which combine his passion for baseball with Jewish themes, have been published online in Cyclamens and Swords and The Jewish Magazine. His short essays and op-ed articles have appeared in The Jerusalem Post and Israel National News.

Yechezkel Gordon: QUOTABLE QUOTES- A COLLECTION OF CLEVER QUOTES FROM THE POLITICAL WORLD

The following quotes have been collected from around the web and put together for your enjoyment:

“The man who could not beat Obama teamed up with the man who could not even beat McCain, what a deadly combination.”
- Rush Limbaugh mocking Romney for his endorsement from McCain on Wednesday

"Hamas is not a political organization that conducts terrorism. Hamas is a murderous, genocidal terrorist organization to the core."
- Mark Regev, the spokesman for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

"I don't think a liberal Massachusetts governor is going to be able to relate to folks as well as the guy who grew up as the grandson of a coal miner."
- Rick Santorum explaining why he can appeal to America better then Mitt Romney in a NBC News interview

"They pick corn in Iowa, they pick presidents in New Hampshire.”
- Jon Huntsman explaining to CBS why he decided to skip the Iowa caucuses.

••••••••••••
GOT QUOTES?
If you stumble upon a clever quote that you feel would be appropriate for this column, please send them to: yechezkelgordoncolumnist@yahoo.com

Yechezkel Gordon: PREVIEWING THE IOWA CAUCUSES- EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS AND PREDICTIONS

WHAT: The Iowa Caucuses

WHEN: January 3, 2012

ANALYSIS: After months of debating and campaigning, the first in the nation caucuses will officially usher in the 2012 election. The Republican field is narrowed down to seven candidates, and by the time the GOP convention is held in the summer, one of them will stand alone as the Republican candidate for president who will take on President Obama in the general election, for the honors of occupying the White House the next four years.

2008 RESULTS:
REPUBLICANS-
Mike Huckabee (34%), Mitt Romney (25%),
Fred Thompson (13%), John McCain (13%),
Ron Paul (10%),
Rudy Giuliani (4%), Duncan Hunter (1%)

DEMOCRATS-
Barack Obama (38%), John Edwards (30%), Hillary Clinton (29%),
Bill Richardson (2%),
Joe Biden (1%)

ANALYSIS: The importance of the first in the nation caucuses has been debated over the years. 2008 proved to be a mixed bag. Huckabee won on the Republican side and that was the last we heard of him until he got a job on Fox News. McCain finished in fourth place and went on to become the eventual nominee. On the Democrat side it was a whole different story. Obama's shocking first place finish, catapulted him to the front of the pack and he's never had to look back since. Previous years have proven more prophetic though. John Kerry won in 2004, Al Gore and George W. Bush won in 2000, and they all went on to become the nominee for their respected parties.

THE CANDIDATES: Here's a rundown of the Republican candidates that will be on the ballot for the Iowa caucuses, and what it will take for them to win.

Mitt Romney: The good news is, he was the front runner in the beginning of the race and he's still the front runner now. The bad news is, it's more a result of his competitors weaknesses then his strengths. He's proven to be a very good debater, and the weak economy plays to his strength as a former CEO and the executive who turned the Utah Olympics into a great economic success. New Hampshire has long been considered his home turf, and if he wins Iowa or comes in second to Paul, he's all but sure to win in NH, and cary that momentum into a South Carolina victory where he already has the endorsement of it's popular Governor. In short, his competitors have only one realistic shot of beating him, and that's in the socially conservative Iowa, if they fail to do that, the race is all but over.

Newt Gingrich: His poll numbers soared earlier this month following a string of strong debate performances and the collapse of Herman Cain's campaign. But the spotlight brings with it scrutiny, and for Gingrich that meant getting pounded for the past few weeks by everyone else on the campaign trail and with blunt TV ads painting him as a lifetime politician turned lobbyist, who will do and say anything to advance his career. He needs to do better then Romney to give himself a chance to win NH. If he doesn't finish in the top three, it will spell the end to his campaign.

Ron Paul: Throughout the campaign, Paul has maintained a strong showing in Iowa. He's known to have the most loyal supporters, and his anti- government stance has helped him expand his support from four years ago. He has the extensive groundwork and organization needed to win in Iowa, and the latest polls indicate that he has a very good chance of doing just that. Recently, his various controversial positions have come out, including racist and anti-Semitic statements in newsletters under his name that were published in the 1990's. He may win in Iowa, but if he does, it will be due to the support of Democrats and Independents, but very few Republicans.

Rick Santorum: As a social and economic conservative, Santorum decided to go all out in Iowa. While his competitors were crisscrossing the country campaigning and fundraising, he went house to house all across Iowa until he managed to visit all 99 counties. His strategy has shown signs of success recently when he received endorsements from two prominent evangelical leaders and from the Iowa Secretary of State. For Santorum, there's a lot at stake in this election. Unlike his conservative competitors Perry and Bachmann who have their current jobs as Governor and Congressman to fall back on should they loose, Santorum would be forced to find a private sector job to help pay off his debt from the campaign. Santorum has a consistent conservative track record throughout his political career in the House and Senate to help him appeal to the conservative Iowans. He'll either shock everyone with a surprising top three finish, or he'll be forced to drop out of the race with a poor showing. A big time endorsement from Iowa Congressman Steve King or another prominent Republican can make all the difference.

Michele Bachmann: A solid conservative that can boast about her victory in the Iowa Straw Poll this summer, but that's about all. Her numbers have tanked ever since Perry joined the race, and she'll need to do well in Iowa to stay in the race. She's fighting for the same conservative evangelicals as Perry and Santorum, and if the three of them split the evangelical vote it will give Romney a good chance of winning.

Rick Perry: His poor debate performances and frequent slip- ups have overshadowed his strong conservative record as Governor of Texas. Finishing below Santorum or Bachmann in the caucuses will put him on a one way ticket back to Texas.

Jon Huntsman: Early in the campaign, he said he would not compete in the more conservative Iowa, and instead would make his start in New Hampshire, which comes second on the nominating calendar. Thus, no matter how poorly he does he'll still be around for the NH primary.

PREDICTION: Unless Santorum pulls off an unbelievable come from behind victory, or Paul manages to convince enough Democrats and Independents to caucus for him, Romney will be the one delivering the victory speech in about a week from now.